Insight: Why Space Traffic Management is Key to Unlocking Value in Space?

Take a look at the backstage story of OKAPI:Orbits’ €13MSeed round led by Ventech.

Imagine Aviation without Air Traffic Control. That’s space at the moment!

In a not-so-distant future, satellite operators will require even more careful mission-planning and maneuver coordination than ever before.

Today, more than 10,500 active satellites are operating in Earth’s orbits. This is almost 5-fold increase over the last 5 years. (Ref: Number of active satellites by year 2023 | Statista)

And there will be more!

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported a record 79 licensed commercial space launches in 2022, a rise from only one in 2011. This upward trajectory is expected to continue, with projections of up to 338 operations annually by fiscal year 2028. (Refs: FAA Fact Book: Explore Commercial Space Data | Federal Aviation Administration; The Rise of Commercial Space: Forecasts and Trends in the Growing Industry | New Space Economy)

Simultaneously, clouds of space debris will continue their journey across the galaxy!

And these are going to cost us big if we leave it be.

As a result, complexity to navigate space is expected to increase and will require large-scale automation & coordination of maneuvers.

The Solution:

This is where OKAPI:Orbits steps in. Managing the increasing congestion in space relies on three key components:

Detection: knowing what’s up there + Data fusion & relevance: making it usable + Prediction & simulation: staying ahead

In order to understand a space mission’s unit economics, you have to know where your satellite is in 5 days, 2 months, 5 years, along with potentially interfering debris and satellites.

Data from various sources must be combined and interpreted — no small task when objects move at 9 km/s and with differing uncertainty levels. OKAPI specializes in turning this fragmented data into actionable insights tailored to satellite operators.

OKAPI capitalizes on 50 years of space debris fragmentation analysis, proprietary models and a data catalogue to provide faster position determination (a few minutes instead of a few days), and more precise measurements (from 100 km to a few 10 meters). Its fragmentation analysis building proprietary models can model objects to 1cm with a >98% accuracy.

The Team: From Braunschweig to infinity and beyond!

While some may know Braunschweig for its sausages, asparagus and gingerbread, one of Germany’s oldest cities is mostly known by the scientific community for the contribution of the Institute of Space Systems of its Technical University in space debris modelling.

From the 1970s onwards & due to the lack of large radar sensors in Europe, the university used sparse data and unique simulation capability to describe the space environment.

And you saw us coming from a star away, OKAPI:Orbits’ team honed its skills there before spuning off. This incredibly resilient & visionary team first bootstrapped for a couple of years before choosing the VC path and gaining the confidence of key space players such as the European Space Agency and Munich Re to name a few.

Market Potential: Everything is bigger in space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth

While more and more private companies are entering the space market, ultimately accounting for 80% of all satellites, states & regional alliances are acknowledging the importance of space for their own sovereignty by realizing large investments.

By 2030, between 50k-100k satellites (thereof 30k in LEO alone) are expected to be in the orbit, driven by advancements in technology and reduced launch costs.

Since no international treaty governs space traffic management & traffic lights in space still remain to be seen, here is a growing regulatory pressure to supervise activities in space (EU law, Space Sustainability Ratings…).

We believe satellite operators & states will look for a neutral intermediary to exchange and process accurate data and they will find in Okapi a super solid partner!

Key future trends in the space industry:

· Exponential launch growth: Annual satellite launches have climbed from under 300 a decade ago to a forecasted 3,000+ per year over the next ten years.

· Shift to mega-constellations: Missions are evolving from lone spacecraft to networks of 100+ satellites operating in concert, for instance at low-earth orbits.

· Accelerated commercialization: An ever-expanding roster of private companies is driving new space applications and the privatization of services once handled by governments.

· Rise of third-party automation: Operators are moving away from fully in-house, vertically integrated models toward outsourced, automated mission management and servicing.

· Escalating sustainability risks: The surge of activity in Low Earth Orbit has produced over 1 million debris fragments and roughly 40 000 potential conjunctions (collisions) per year, prompting an urgent need for deorbit systems and advanced collision-avoidance measures.